Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 72.34%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Mantova had a probability of 11.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 3-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.3%), while for a Mantova win it was 1-2 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
0.12) 
-0.05) 
