SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Under-23s win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Dominican Republic Under-23s had a probability of 37.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.06%) and 0-1 (4.99%). The likeliest Dominican Republic Under-23s win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain Under-23s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dominican Republic Under-23s | Draw | Spain Under-23s |
37.05% ( -13.95) | 21.85% ( -0.5) | 41.1% ( 14.45) |
| Both teams to score 69.88% ( 7.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.04% ( 7.59) | 29.96% ( -7.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.86% ( 8.63) | 51.14% ( -8.64) |
| Dominican Republic Under-23s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.78% ( -2.27) | 17.22% ( 2.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.48% ( -4.14) | 47.52% ( 4.14) |
| Spain Under-23s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.42% ( 11.1) | 15.58% ( -11.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.45% ( 17.38) | 44.55% ( -17.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dominican Republic Under-23s | Draw | Spain Under-23s |
| 2-1 @ 7.72% ( -1.8) 1-0 @ 4.72% ( -2.86)3-1 @ 4.53% ( -1.5)3-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 4.15% ( -3.05)3-0 @ 2.43% ( -2.13)4-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.87)4-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.31)4-0 @ 1.07% ( -1.1)Other @ 3.24% Total : 37.05% | 1-1 @ 8.78% ( -1.24) 2-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.89)0-0 @ 2.68% ( -1.31)3-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.85)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.85% | 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 1.54) 1-3 @ 5.06% ( 2.14)0-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 4.64% ( 1.15)2-3 @ 4.45% ( 1.68)0-3 @ 2.87% ( 1.34)1-4 @ 2.35% ( 1.39)2-4 @ 2.07% ( 1.15)0-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.83)3-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.63)Other @ 3.98% Total : 41.1% |
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