Europa League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2024 at 6pm UK
Boras Arena
We said: Elfsborg 1-0 Pafos FC
Elfsborg returned from the summer break with a convincing win, and the Swedes should take confidence from the weekend's success into their continental battle on Thursday.
Pafos have been promising during their friendly fixtures, but we feel that the Cypriots will fall behind ahead of the second leg later this month.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elfsborg win with a probability of 56.14%. A win for Pafos FC had a probability of 22.58% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elfsborg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 1-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Pafos FC win was 1-2 (5.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.
| Result |
| Elfsborg | Draw | Pafos FC |
56.14% ( 0.02) | 21.29% ( -0.01) | 22.58% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 61.46% ( 0.01) |
| 63.34% ( 0.02) | 36.66% ( -0.02) |
| 41.18% ( 0.02) | 58.81% ( -0.02) |
| 86.98% ( 0.01) | 13.02% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.43% ( 0.03) | 39.57% ( -0.03) |
| 70.66% ( 0) | 29.33% ( -0) |
