Despite Vitoria's vast improvement over the past weeks, Fortaleza are coming into this game enjoying a fantastic run of five wins from their last seven games and are yet to be defeated at home in the league, leading us to believe the hosts will win this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 64.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 14.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.76%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
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