SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Fortaleza |
38.32% ( -1.18) | 25.64% ( 0.02) | 36.04% ( 1.16) |
| Both teams to score 55.45% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.39% ( 0.05) | 48.61% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.27% ( 0.05) | 70.73% ( -0.05) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( -0.6) | 24.9% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.48% ( -0.84) | 59.52% ( 0.84) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.83% ( 0.71) | 26.17% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.75% ( 0.94) | 61.25% ( -0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 1-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.32% | 1-1 @ 12.14% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.52% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 8.14% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.31% Total : 36.04% |
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