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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 45.4%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.58%) and 0-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Western United |
32.76% ( -0.17) | 21.83% ( 0.04) | 45.4% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 68.63% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.92% ( -0.27) | 31.08% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.52% ( -0.32) | 52.48% ( 0.32) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.24% ( -0.21) | 19.76% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.2% ( -0.35) | 51.79% ( 0.35) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.53% ( -0.06) | 14.47% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 57.56% ( -0.12) | 42.43% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 7.27% ( -0) 1-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.22% Total : 32.76% | 1-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 7.02% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.55% Total : 21.83% | 1-2 @ 8.66% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 5.58% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 4.53% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.7% ( -0)2-4 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 3.55% Total : 45.4% |
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