SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 72.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 11.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 3-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.12%), while for a Stoke City win it was 1-2 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Stoke City |
72.3% ( 0.14) | 15.9% ( -0.05) | 11.81% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 57.37% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.06% ( 0.03) | 30.94% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.68% ( 0.03) | 52.32% ( -0.03) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.53% ( 0.04) | 7.47% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.16% ( 0.09) | 26.84% ( -0.08) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62% ( -0.11) | 38% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.24% ( -0.11) | 74.76% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton | Draw | Stoke City |
| 2-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 7.99% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.36% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.51% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.3% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.83% Total : 72.3% | 1-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.84% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 15.9% | 1-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.73% Total : 11.81% |
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