Wrexham may have prevailed in just one of their last four games, but they have won all of their four home league matches this season, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage again to condemn Northampton to a third consecutive defeat.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 17.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-2 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
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