SM
Man United vs. Bodo/Glimt: 11 hrs 35 mins
Upcoming predictions and previews

The Playoff Race - probabilities examined

:Headline: The Playoff Race - probabilities examined: ID:357688: from db_amp
Leeds missed out on automatic promotion.

Leeds will have to settle for a play-off place this season – but the record of third-placed finishers in the Championship offers them encouragement.

Norwich wrapped up automatic promotion with victory over Blackburn on Saturday evening, while Sunday's controversial draw with Aston Villa meant Leeds cannot catch second-placed Sheffield United.

They need just a point against relegated Ipswich to make sure of finishing third – and history shows the value of securing that spot.

Championship

(PA Graphic)

Press Association Sport has looked back at the history of the play-offs to track how often the third-placed team – or the highest-placed if a different system is in operation, for example fourth in League Two or second in years when the divisions have been re-aligned – have won promotion.

The footballing truism says a team coming with late momentum to snatch the final place then goes on to win promotion – but it has simply not been borne out.

The highest play-off finisher in the second tier, under its various different names since the first promotion play-offs in 1987, has been promoted on 11 occasions out of 32 – significantly more than the other three positions, which all have similar success rates to each other.

The second and third play-off spots have produced seven winners apiece, while the supposed form team in the final slot have been successful only six times.

That comes in two fewer attempts, as the 1987 and 1988 play-offs instead featured the last team above relegation in the division above – Charlton won the play-offs from that spot in 1987 to survive.

If anything, the trend is even more pronounced in recent years – since 2006, seven of the 13 Championship play-off winners have come from third place, including Fulham last year.

Lower leagues

Fleetwood celebrate after winning the 2014 League Two play-off final (John Walton/PA)

The pattern is similar in League Two, where the highest qualifier – always fourth place at this level, except in the 1990-91 and 1994-95 seasons when the Football League divisions were re-aligned – has been promoted 14 times out of 32, though not since 2014.

The third play-off spot has produced eight winners, including Coventry last season, with four from the second and six from the lowest qualifying place.

League One is the one exception to the overall pattern, with the second qualifying spot producing the most winners – 12 out of 32 after Rotherham's success last year.

The top and bottom play-off places have yielded eight and nine promotions respectively while Charlton, who look set to finish fifth barring a meltdown from Portsmouth and Sunderland ahead of them, will have to buck a trend which has seen only three teams promoted from the third play-off spot.

amp_article__357688 : Database Data restored...  : 
last updated article - 2019-04-29 13:04:22:
html db last update - 2019-04-29 13:04:22 :

ex - 7200 : read : read cache amp html

Click here for more stories about Leeds United

Share this article now:
Recommended Next on SM
Premier League Table
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds17105231121935
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1711422491535
3Burnley179622161533
4Sunderland1796226121433
5Watford179262624229
6Middlesbrough178362920927
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom176921811727
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn167452017325
9Millwall166641914524
10Norwich CityNorwich175753125622
11Swansea CitySwansea176471615122
12Bristol City175752021-122
13Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds176472026-622
14Stoke CityStoke175661920-121
15Derby CountyDerby175572122-120
16Luton TownLuton175391829-1118
17Coventry CityCoventry174582225-317
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd174581927-817
19Preston North EndPreston173861624-817
20Plymouth ArgylePlymouth174581834-1617
21Cardiff CityCardiff174491526-1116
22Hull City173681623-715
23Queens Park RangersQPR172871526-1114
24Portsmouth152671628-1212
Scroll for more - Tap for full version


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
AL
Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!

Loading ...

Failed to load data.



. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .