Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 37.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 0-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.