Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 53.81%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that France would win this match.
