Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 46.95%. A win for Puszcza Niepolomice had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Puszcza Niepolomice win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.
