Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 47.15%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.

Result
Watford	Draw	Aston Villa
27.33%	25.51%	47.15%

Both teams to score 52.25%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.88%

51.12%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.03%

72.97%

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.72%

33.28%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.11%

69.89%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.32%

21.68%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.17%

54.83%

Score Analysis

Watford 27.33%

Aston Villa 47.15%

Draw 25.51%

Watford	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 7.94% 2-1 @ 6.68% 2-0 @ 4.37% 3-1 @ 2.45% 3-2 @ 1.87% 3-0 @ 1.6% Other @ 2.43% Total : 27.33%	1-1 @ 12.13% 0-0 @ 7.22% 2-2 @ 5.1% 3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.51%	0-1 @ 11.03% 1-2 @ 9.28% 0-2 @ 8.43% 1-3 @ 4.73% 0-3 @ 4.3% 2-3 @ 2.6% 1-4 @ 1.81% 0-4 @ 1.64% 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.35% Total : 47.15%