SM
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid: 13 hrs 25 mins
Upcoming predictions and previews

The Premier League survival battle in focus

:Headline: The Premier League survival battle in focus: ID:351943: from db_amp
The days when 40 points were needed to stay up appear to be long gone.

The battle for Premier League survival is fast reaching crunch time after an eventful week for the clubs at the foot of the table.

Despite an overdue win against Wolves, Huddersfield remain rooted to the bottom – although they have closed the gap to second-bottom Fulham, who have lost seven of their last eight league games and sacked a second manager this season – while back-to-back wins have eased Newcastle away from the thick of the action.

Received wisdom suggests 40 points and 10 wins are required to guarantee top-flight safety, but recent history appears to question that belief.

Here, Press Association Sport analyses the last five seasons and what has made the difference for the bottom six.

Is 36 the new 40?

Rafael Benitez and Newcastle were relegated with 37 points in 2015-16 (Owen Humphreys/PA)

Most managers of clubs fighting for their Premier League lives still talk about 40 points as the target for survival, but that has not been necessary since the 2010-11 season, when Wolves sent both Birmingham and Blackpool down on 39.

Indeed, only once in the last five seasons – Newcastle were relegated with 37 points at the end of 2015-16 – has more than 36 points been required to avoid the drop. Out of 40 teams finishing on between 37 and 40 points in a 38-game Premier League season, 33 have survived.

Winning is not everything...

Southampton scraped over the line under Mark Hughes (Steven Paston/PA)

No team that has reached double figures for wins inside the last five campaigns has gone down, while only seven have ever been relegated with 10 wins out of 38 and reaching 11 or more has meant a 100 per cent survival rate.

But three sides in the last five seasons – West Brom in 2013-14, Sunderland 12 months later and Southampton last season – have stayed up having managed only seven wins. The Baggies and Saints drew on 15 occasions, while the Black Cats took a further 17 points.

Four sides in that time-frame have won nine games and still been relegated – Fulham in 2013-14, both Newcastle and Norwich two seasons later and Hull in 2016-17.

...But it makes a difference

An unbeaten run under Darren Moore could not save West Brom (Clint Hughes/PA)

Being hard to beat is not enough – West Brom and Middlesbrough have both recently dropped into the Sky Bet Championship having drawn 13 Premier League games.

The Baggies won only six times to go down on 31 points last season, a year after Boro had suffered a similar fate with five wins and 28 points.

Stats back Benitez

Newcastle boss Rafael Benitez has been criticised for the way he sets up his team against the division's big boys in the last two campaigns, but his assertion that goal difference can be significant is borne out by the statistics.

Hull are the only team to be relegated in the last five seasons with a goal difference better than -20 – they finished on -18 in 2014-15.

Blackburn's -14 in 1998-99 is the best goal difference for a relegated team in a 38-game Premier League campaign, while Wigan's -42 in 2009-10 is the worst for a team who survived – indeed, of 19 teams who have finished at -35 or worse, the Latics are the only one not to be relegated.

This is what the bottom of the Premier League table looked like in each of the last five seasons:

2013-14

15 Aston Villa W 10 D 8 L 20 F 39 A 61 GD -22 Pts 38
16 Hull W 10 D 7 L 21 F 38 A 53 GD -15 Pts 37
17 West Brom W 7 D 15 L 16 F 43 A 59 GD -16 Pts 36

18 Norwich W 8 D 9 L 21 F 28 A 62 GD -34 Pts 33
19 Fulham W 9 D 5 L 24 F 40 A 85 GD -45 Pts 32
20 Cardiff W 7 D 9 L 22 F 32 A 74 GD -42 Pts 30

2014-15

15 Newcastle W 10 D 9 L 19 F 40 A 63 GD -23 Pts 39
16 Sunderland W 7 D 17 L 14 F 31 A 53 GD -22 Pts 38
17 Aston Villa W 10 D 8 L 20 F 31 A 57 GD -26 Pts 38

18 Hull W 8 D 11 L 19 F 33 A 51 GD -18 Pts 35
19 Burnley W 7 D 12 L 19 F 28 A 53 GD -25 Pts 33
20 QPR W 8 D 6 L 24 F 42 A 73 GD -31 Pts 30

2015-16

15 Crystal Palace W 11 D 9 L 18 F 39 A 51 GD -12 Pts 42
16 Bournemouth W 11 D 9 L 18 F 45 A 67 GD -22 Pts 42
17 Sunderland W 9 D 12 L 17 F 48 A 62 GD -14 Pts 39

18 Newcastle W 9 D 10 L 19 F 44 A 65 GD -21 Pts 37
19 Norwich W 9 D 7 L 22 F 39 A 67 GD -28 Pts 34
20 Aston Villa W 3 D 8 L 27 F 27 A 76 GD -49 Pts 17

2016-17

15 Swansea W 12 D 5 L 21 F 45 A 70 GD -25 Pts 41
16 Burnley W 11 D 7 L 20 F 39 A 55 GD -16 Pts 40
17 Watford W 11 D 7 L 20 F 40 A 68 GD -28 Pts 40

18 Hull W 9 D 7 L 22 F 37 A 80 GD -43 Pts 34
19 Middlesbrough W 5 D 13 L 20 F 27 A 53 GD -26 Pts 28
20 Sunderland W 6 D 6 L 26 F 29 A 69 GD -40 Pts 24

2017-18

15 Brighton W 9 D 13 L 16 F 34 A 54 GD -20 Pts 40
16 Huddersfield W 9 D 10 L 19 F 28 A 58 GD -30 Pts 37
17 Southampton W 7 D 15 L 16 F 37 A 56 GD -19 Pts 36

18 Swansea W 8 D 9 L 21 F 28 A 56 GD -28 Pts 33
19 Stoke W 7 D 12 L 19 F 35 A 68 GD -33 Pts 33
20 West Brom W 6 D 13 L 19 F 31 A 56 GD -25 Pts 31

amp_article__351943 : Database Data restored...  : 
last updated article - 2019-03-01 12:27:06:
html db last update - 2019-03-01 12:27:06 :

ex - 7200 : read : read cache amp html
Share this article now:
Read more about Rafael Benitez Football
Recommended Next on SM
Premier League Table
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool1210112481631
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Fulham125341717018
10Newcastle UnitedNewcastle125341313018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd124441313016
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham124351519-415
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Ipswich TownIpswich121651323-109
19Crystal Palace121561017-78
20Southampton121110924-154
Scroll for more - Tap for full version


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
AL
Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!

Loading ...

Failed to load data.



. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .