Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motherwell win with a probability of 56.59%. A win for Alloa Athletic had a probability of 22% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Motherwell win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.27%) and 1-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Alloa Athletic win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Motherwell would win this match.
