Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Amorebieta had a probability of 32.77% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Amorebieta win was 0-1 (11.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.