Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Lugo had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.06%) and 1-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Lugo win was 1-0 (11.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
