Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Perugia win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.