Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penafiel win with a probability of 82.73%. A draw had a probability of 12.1% and a win for Santa Maria had a probability of 5.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penafiel win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.79%) and 1-0 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.72%), while for a Santa Maria win it was 0-1 (2.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penafiel would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.06) 
