Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Penafiel had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Penafiel win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.05) 
