Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pero Pinheiro win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Vitoria de Setubal had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pero Pinheiro win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Vitoria de Setubal win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.05) 
