Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 42.67%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro in this match.