Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Samoa win with a probability of 48.3%. A win for American Samoa had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Samoa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.94%) and 2-3 (5.31%). The likeliest American Samoa win was 2-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.38) 
