Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 84.44%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Sri Lanka had a probability of 3.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.59%) and 1-0 (13.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.19%), while for a Sri Lanka win it was 0-1 (2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lebanon would win this match.
