Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 54.86%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
