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Rugby Championship | Group Stage
Sep 15, 2022 at 10.45am UK
 
Australia
37-39
New Zealand
Valetini (26'), Kellaway (61', 67'), Samu (73')
FT
Taukei'aho (4', 41'), Mo'unga (52'), Jordan (55'), Barrett (80')

Preview: Australia vs. New Zealand - predictions, team news, head to head

:Headline: Preview: Australia vs. New Zealand - predictions, team news, head to head:
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Rugby Championship showdown between Trans-Tasman rivals Australia and New Zealand, including predictions, team news and their head-to-head record.
Sports Mole

Trans-Tasman rivals Australia and New Zealand will renew hostilities at the Marvel Stadium in Melbourne on Thursday with the Rugby Championship crown still within reach for both sides.

Just one point separates all four teams in the standings heading into the final two rounds, with New Zealand leading the way and the rest trailing narrowly behind them.


Match preview

Matches between these two old foes need no extra hype, but on top of bragging rights and Bledisloe glory being on offer, the prospect of the Rugby Championship crown also looms for both teams ahead of their double-header this week and next.

It is the tightest Rugby Championship campaign ever, with all four teams having won twice and lost twice so far and New Zealand only leading the way by virtue of an extra losing bonus point from one of their defeats.

Indeed, it is already guaranteed to be the first edition of the Rugby Championship won by a team with as many as two defeats to their name, and excitingly all four teams have a genuine chance of lifting the trophy.

As usual, the All Blacks must still be regarded as the favourites, thanks as much to their incredible pedigree of success as their one-point lead at the top, but the transient nature of the group was perfectly illustrated last week when surprise leaders Argentina fell from top to bottom.

New Zealand ran in seven tries on their way to a resounding 53-3 win over Los Pumas two weeks ago, providing the perfect response to their stunning and historic defeat at the hands of the same opponents a week earlier.

The victory may have been enough to keep Ian Foster in the job, but the jury remains out on the All Blacks head coach following one of the worst runs in their illustrious history, and a seventh defeat in their last 10 Test matches would pile the pressure back on him once again.

Incredibly, New Zealand have not won back-to-back Test matches since November of last year, a spell which saw them sink to their lowest-ever world ranking of fifth before the win over Argentina lifted them up to their current position of fourth.

Even that would have been New Zealand's lowest ranking ever just one month ago, so this is uncharted territory for rugby's traditional dominant force.

Nonetheless, they still find themselves in pole position to win the Rugby Championship for a fifth time in the last six editions, and back-to-back wins over Australia to end their campaign should be enough to seal the trophy.

The Wallabies have endured an extended period of misery against their oldest rivals, and you have to go back to 2002 for the last time they ended the year with the Bledisloe Cup in their possession.

Worryingly for Australia, things have been far better for them at times during their two-decade drought than they are now, with Dave Rennie's men currently ranked eighth in the world.

Thursday's hosts are still capable of beating any team on their day, though, as evidenced by their 25-17 victory over world champions South Africa in Adelaide last month.

Australia were unable to build on that, though, as the Springboks powered to a 24-8 triumph in Sydney in their last outing to end a nine-year wait for victory against the Wallabies on Australian soil.

Rennie's men have now won just two of their last six matches, and a run of three straight defeats against the All Blacks will not inspire much hope that that record will improve this weekend.

However, rarely in rugby history have there been good times to face New Zealand and, with home advantage behind them and shocks galore already in this year's competition, this may be as good a chance as the Wallabies will ever get.

Australia Rugby Championship form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Australia form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

New Zealand Rugby Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

New Zealand form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W


Team News

Bernard Foley will make his return to the Australia setup for this match, bringing an end to his three-year international exile as he appears for the first time under Rennie - one of eight changes made by the Wallabies head coach.

The 71-capped fly-half replaces Noah Lolesio, who misses out through concussion, while there is also a change at scrum-half with Nic White dropping to the bench and Jake Gordon starting in his stead.

Hunter Paisami has not been able to overcome a head injury and so joins a lengthy list of Australian absentees, with Lalakai Foketi replacing him at centre. Andrew Kellaway also comes in at full-back to take the place of Reece Hodge.

There are changes in the pack too as Rob Leota, Pete Samu and Dave Porecki come into the starting XV and Jed Holloway switches to second-row in place of the unavailable Rory Arnold.

Marika Koroibete will earn his 50th cap for the Wallabies, while it will be international appearance number 122 for captain James Slipper as he moves into outright third in the all-time list for Australia, behind only George Gregan and Stephen Moore.

New Zealand will be without the influential Ardie Savea, who has stayed at home for the birth of his baby and will be replaced at number eight by Hoskins Sotutu.

That is one of two personnel changes made by Foster, with Scott Barrett shifting to blindside for the injured Shannon Frizell and the veteran Brodie Retallick coming in at lock.

Sam Whitelock will earn his 139th Test cap, moving level with Gregan in fifth in the all-time rankings, behind only Alun Wyn Jones, Richie McCaw, Sergio Parisse and Brian O'Driscoll.

Australia starting lineup:
Andrew Kellaway; Tom Wright, Len Ikitau, Lalakai Foketi, Marika Koroibete; Bernard Foley, Jake Gordon; Rob Valetini, Pete Samu, Rob Leota; Matt Philip, Jed Holloway; Allan Alaalatoa, David Porecki, James Slipper

Replacements:
Folau Fainga'a, Scott Sio, Pone Fa'amausili, Darcy Swain, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Reece Hodge, Jordan Petaia

New Zealand starting lineup:
Jordie Barrett; Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, David Havili, Caleb Clarke; Richie Mo'unga, Aaron Smith; Hoskins Sotutu, Sam Cane, Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Tyrel Lomax, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Ethan de Groot

Replacements:
Dane Coles, George Bower, Fletcher Newell, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papalii, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Quinn Tupaea


Head To Head

This is the most-played Test match in the history of international rugby, with the Oceanic neighbours having done battle 152 times in the past.

New Zealand have largely dominated that history, winning 108 to Australia's 37, and that has been even more evident this century with the All Blacks looking to claim the Bledisloe Cup for the 20th successive year.

This series marks 90 years since the Bledisloe Cup was introduced between these two nations, and Australia would no doubt love to mark the occasion by ending their decades-long drought.


We say: New Zealand to win

The Melbourne crowd will be up for New Zealand's first visit to the city since 2010, but home support can only carry a team so far and, for all of their troubles recently, the All Blacks should still have enough to win this one.

Foster's men showed glimpses of their old selves in the one-sided victory over Argentina last time out and will hope that perhaps the worst run they have ever suffered is now in their rear-view mirror.

That said, there have been false dawns in this spell for Foster already, and an Australia victory on Thursday would not be as surprising as it might have been just a month ago.


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