Sports Mole previews Thursday's US Open second-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Botic van de Zandschulp, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Riding a 15-match winning streak at major tournaments, Carlos Alcaraz will take on Botic van de Zandschulp in second-round action at the US Open on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion defeated Li Tu of Australia 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-1, while the Dutchman ousted Canadian Denis Shapovalov in straight sets 6-4 7-5 6-4.

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Match preview

Since the start of the 2024 French Open, Carlos Alcaraz has been one of the players to beat on the men's side, but no one has managed to do so in Grand Slam events since Alexander Zverev knocked him out in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open in four sets.

Despite losing the second set of his opening-round match this week, the booming serve of the Spaniard was too much for his opponent to handle, with Alcaraz winning 80% of his first serve points.

Alcaraz made his break points count in round one as well, securing seven of them while also hitting eight aces to claim victory.

His forehand, widely regarded by many as the best on the men's draw, has enabled him to excel in the return game, winning 55% of his second-serve return points this year while converting 44% of his break points.

Not since the 2021 edition of Wimbledon has Alcaraz been eliminated in the second round of a Grand Slam event, with Daniil Medvedev beating him in straight sets.

Breaking Alcaraz when he is on serve, particularly on the hard court, has been a tall order for his opponents this year, with the 2022 US Open champion winning 90% of his service games on that surface in 2024.

In the opening round of this tournament, Botic van de Zandschulp benefitted from some sloppy errors by his opponent while capitalising when on serve to advance into the second round of a second successive Grand Slam tournament.

Shapovalov registered 11 double faults, and although van de Zandschulp did not hit a single ace, he still won 72% of his first-serve points.

He converted 60% of his break point opportunities, enabling him to advance to the second round at the US Open for a fourth successive occasion.

While he has started his US Open campaigns well in the past, he has not made it beyond this phase at Flushing Meadows since upsetting Casper Ruud in four sets in 2021, making an improbable run to the quarter-finals that year before losing to the eventual champion Medvedev.

So far this year, the 28-year-old Dutchman has been able to save 61% of his break points on the hard court but has only won 60% of his service points on that surface.

Four of his six victories against top 10 players have occurred on hard court surfaces, including a straight sets triumph over Cameron Norrie at the 2022 Davis Cup.

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Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Li Tu 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-1

Botic van de Zandschulp:

First round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 6-4 7-5 6-4

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Head To Head

Australian Open (2021)- First round- Alcaraz wins 6-1 6-4 6-4

Basel Open (2022)- Round of 16- Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-2

In the opening round of the 2021 Aussie Open, Alcaraz won 77% of his first serve points, and although he only hit two aces, he managed to win nearly half of his break points (5/12) for a straightforward victory.

When these two met again in Switzerland, the Dutchmen only had two break point opportunities, with Alcaraz winning four of his six break points and 75% of his first serve points.

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We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

Although he lost a set in his opener, Alcaraz still won comfortably, while Van de Zandschulp benefitted from his opponents' costly mistakes, mistakes that we have a hard time believing the Spaniard will frequently make, given his track record in Grand Slams this year.

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