Aryna Sabalenka could take another step towards the year-end No. 1 ranking when she takes on Jasmine Paolini at the WTA Finals on Monday.
The current top-ranked player notched a straight-set success in her first round-robin match against Qinwen Zheng, while the Italian debutant beat the returning Elena Rybakina in two.
Match preview
Sabalenka may be unaware of the surfeit of permutations required to see her finish as the year-end No. 1, but the Belarusian must know she needs two more round-robin triumphs to pip Iga Swiatek to the post.
She began her Finals in Riyadh with another victory in two sets against Zheng (6-3, 6-4), improving to 5-0 against the Chinese player, who entered the tournament in fine form following her recent triumph in Tokyo.
With an astonishing 21-1 record heading into her second match in Saudi Arabia, the tour's in-form player does not seem too keen on letting up before a fifth meeting with Paolini.
Sabalenka knows winning the year-end event will seal the No. 1 spot, but she could wrap that up by extending her ongoing run to 23-1, an outcome that will not be lost on her.
Paolini was favoured to beat Rybakina in two sets, and the two-time 2024 Majors finalist outdid the rusty Kazakhstani 7-6(5), 6-4, sealing success in her first match at the event.
While Italian was outdone for winners against Rybakina (12-27), the returning player's staggeringly high 56 unforced errors undermined any pressure she could put the 28-year-old under.
The upshot of Paolini's success means she could seal qualification by beating Sabalenka in Monday's match and clinching top spot is feasible if the Kazakhstani defeats Zheng in the Purple Group's earlier match.
While she would need to end the world No. 1's ongoing six-match winning streak for that to happen, the second-oldest debuting woman will back herself to stun the favourite after an impressive year.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
Round Robin: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-3 6-4
Jasmine Paolini:
Round Robin: vs. Elena Rybakina 7-6(5) 6-4
Head To Head
Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 7-6(4)
Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Paolini 2-6 6-3 6-3
Linz (2020) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 6-4 6-4
Ilkley (2017) - Round of 32: Paolini 4-6 7-5 7-6(2)
Sabalenka and Paolini have split previous meetings 2-2 heading into their fifth in Riyadh.
The Italian's two victories have come after losing the opening set, highlighting her doggedness and inclination to react to setbacks, while the world No. 1's triumphs have come in two.
The Belarusian seeks an 11th triumph over a top-10 player this season — no player has more than Sabalenka's 10 in 2024 — underlining her adeptness against elite opponents.
We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets
Sabalenka enters Monday's match with an impressive record: she has ten victories against top-10 opponents this season and has defeated the other seven players in Riyadh a combined 11 times, more than any other competitor.
Although Paolini packs a punch when in full flow, we expect the top-ranked player to take a positive step towards clinching the year-end No. 1 ranking.
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