Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Newcastle Jets	Draw	Melbourne City
29.61% ( -0.71)	21.54% ( 0.1)	48.85% ( 0.61)

Both teams to score 67.92% (

-0.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.71% (

-0.95)

31.29% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.27% (

-1.13)

52.73% (

1.13)

Newcastle Jets Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.43% (

-0.88)

21.57% (

0.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.35% (

-1.37)

54.65% (

1.36)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.59% (

-0.15)

13.4% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.65% (

-0.31)

40.34% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Newcastle Jets 29.61%

Melbourne City 48.85%

Draw 21.54%

Newcastle Jets	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 6.84% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 3.5% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 3.4% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.08) 4-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.6% Total : 29.61%	1-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 6.87% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 2.89% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.51% Total : 21.54%	1-2 @ 8.95% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 6% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.24) 0-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.27) 2-3 @ 4.6% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 3.01% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 2.31% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 1.96% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.21% ( -0) 3-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.06) 2-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.13% Total : 48.85%