Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Hilal win with a probability of 58.59%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Istiqlol Dushanbe had a probability of 20.58%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Hilal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.49%) and 1-0 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Istiqlol Dushanbe win it was 1-2 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Hilal would win this match.
