SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Equatorial Guinea win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tunisia | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
42.63% ( -0.06) | 24.63% ( 0) | 32.75% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 58.24% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.32% ( -0) | 44.68% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.96% ( -0) | 67.04% ( 0) |
| Tunisia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.96% ( -0.03) | 21.03% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.17% ( -0.05) | 53.83% ( 0.04) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.75% ( 0.03) | 26.25% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.64% ( 0.04) | 61.36% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tunisia | Draw | Equatorial Guinea |
| 2-1 @ 8.98% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.49% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.12% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.82% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0)Other @ 2.67% Total : 42.63% | 1-1 @ 11.51% 2-2 @ 6% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.62% | 1-2 @ 7.7% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.43% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.68% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.75% |
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