Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 55.21%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 18.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
