Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Santos had a probability of 16.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.86) 
