Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 50.73%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Santos had a probability of 22.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (8.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
-0.03) 
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