Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 50.99%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gremio in this match.
0.62) 
-0.73) 
