With both teams enjoying five-match unbeaten runs in the Bundesliga in recent weeks, there is very little to split these two sides, and we can envisage both managers being content to get to the other side of the imminent international break with their recent records in tact.
As such, it would be no surprise to see a share of the spoils be the outcome of Sunday's meeting at the MEWA Arena, which would be no disaster for either club.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.71%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 25.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.08) 
-0.02) 
