The Union Berlin faithful will be hoping this fairytale lasts forever, and they will be pinching themselves if they can return to the top of the tree with a win here.
Another heavy defeat to a side near the top in midweek shows where Mainz are currently at, and they may just be outplayed here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.
-0.78) 
0.38) 
