With both teams defeated in midweek, we can envisage each manager aiming to keep things tight at the MEWA Arena on Saturday, especially given their lowly positions in the league table.
As such, it would be little surprise to see Mainz draw 1-1 for the fifth time already this season, which would represent a decent result for both teams in their current situations.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 23.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
-0.14) 
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