SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 37.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.11%) and 3-2 (4.96%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Porto in this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
41.39% ( 0.05) | 20.75% ( -0.03) | 37.86% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 74.44% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.82% ( 0.15) | 24.18% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.16% ( 0.2) | 43.84% ( -0.2) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.91% ( 0.08) | 13.09% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.29% ( 0.16) | 39.71% ( -0.16) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.66% ( 0.06) | 14.34% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.8% ( 0.11) | 42.2% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 7.54% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.11% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.63% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 41.39% | 1-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 7.32% 3-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.93% Total : 20.75% | 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 4.74% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.66% ( -0)0-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.54% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.26% ( 0)3-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 4.55% Total : 37.86% |
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