Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 35.98%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 33.42% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.1%) and 2-1 (7.02%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (13.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Birmingham City
35.98%	30.59%	33.42%

Both teams to score 40.55%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.05%

66.95%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.77%

85.23%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.57%

35.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.81%

72.19%

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.79%

37.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.01%

73.99%

Score Analysis

Derby County 35.97%

Birmingham City 33.42%

Draw 30.59%

Derby County	Draw	Birmingham City
1-0 @ 13.67% 2-0 @ 7.1% 2-1 @ 7.02% 3-0 @ 2.46% 3-1 @ 2.43% 3-2 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.11% Total : 35.97%	1-1 @ 13.52% 0-0 @ 13.18% 2-2 @ 3.47% Other @ 0.42% Total : 30.59%	0-1 @ 13.03% 1-2 @ 6.69% 0-2 @ 6.44% 1-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.8% Total : 33.42%