This has all the makings of a highly-competitive game, particularly with Wilder having had the international break to work with his squad. Nevertheless, Luton are growing in confidence at Kenilworth Road, leading us to predict a narrow victory for the Hatters.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 48.77%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Watford had a probability of 24.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
0.78) 
-0.27) 
