Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 21, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Atletico Nacional and Melgar.
Form, Standings, Stats
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 26.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Nacional would win this match.
| Result |
| Atletico Nacional | Draw | Melgar |
46.63% ( 0.11) | 27.24% ( -0.06) | 26.14% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.35% ( 0.11) |
| 41.67% ( 0.16) | 58.33% ( -0.16) |
| 21.05% ( 0.13) | 78.95% ( -0.12) |
| 74.97% ( 0.13) | 25.03% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.3% ( 0.18) | 59.7% ( -0.17) |
| 61.83% ( 0.04) | 38.17% ( -0.04) |
