With both teams already through to the knockout stages, we do not expect to see a particularly entertaining encounter on Thursday.
Independiente have been incredibly tough to beat on home soil in recent years and we believe that they have enough about them to secure a tight victory and top spot in Group E as a result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for Argentinos Juniors had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Argentinos Juniors win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
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