Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.48%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 25.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.02) 
