Strange things can happen in these single elimination matches, as numerous Ligue 1 clubs can attest to this season, and we expect the home crowd and some heroic goalkeeping could be enough for Annecy to cause another upset.
Both sides are in poor form domestically at the moment, but the pressure will be squarely on the shoulders of Toulouse, who have not handled that well in past Coupe de France campaigns, which could give the home team the psychological edge they need to triumph.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 44.56%. A win for Annecy had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Annecy win was 1-0 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
-0.07) 
0.17) 
