Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 36.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.62%) and 0-2 (5.82%). The likeliest Nantes win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.04) 
