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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 27, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Brentford Community Stadium
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Brentford
0 - 1
Arsenal


Wissa (67'), Jorgensen (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Nelson (8')
White (41'), Nketiah (54')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brentford 1-3 Everton
Saturday, September 23 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 Spurs
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 49.74%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Brentford had a probability of 24.89%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for a Brentford win it was 1-0 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arsenal in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arsenal.

Result
BrentfordDrawArsenal
24.89% (-0.332 -0.33) 25.37% (0.074000000000002 0.07) 49.74% (0.258 0.26)
Both teams to score 50.62% (-0.542 -0.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.75% (-0.555 -0.56)52.25% (0.556 0.56)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.05% (-0.481 -0.48)73.95% (0.48099999999999 0.48)
Brentford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.09% (-0.59100000000001 -0.59)35.91% (0.591 0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.31% (-0.613 -0.61)72.68% (0.611 0.61)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.98% (-0.11500000000001 -0.12)21.02% (0.115 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.19% (-0.18 -0.18)53.81% (0.18 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Brentford 24.89%
    Arsenal 49.74%
    Draw 25.36%
BrentfordDrawArsenal
1-0 @ 7.73% (0.046 0.05)
2-1 @ 6.18% (-0.085 -0.09)
2-0 @ 3.96% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-1 @ 2.11% (-0.064 -0.06)
3-2 @ 1.64% (-0.056 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.35% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 24.89%
1-1 @ 12.05% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 7.55% (0.165 0.17)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.083 -0.08)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 25.36%
0-1 @ 11.77% (0.22 0.22)
1-2 @ 9.4% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.18% (0.138 0.14)
1-3 @ 4.89% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-3 @ 4.77% (0.055000000000001 0.06)
2-3 @ 2.5% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-4 @ 1.91% (-0.015 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.86% (0.015 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.98% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 49.74%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Brentford 1-3 Everton
Saturday, September 23 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 1-0 Brentford
Saturday, September 16 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 2-2 Bournemouth
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newport 1-1 Brentford (0-3 pen.)
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Fulham 0-3 Brentford
Saturday, August 19 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 Spurs
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 4-0 PSV
Wednesday, September 20 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Everton 0-1 Arsenal
Sunday, September 17 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 3-1 Man Utd
Sunday, September 3 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 Fulham
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Crystal Palace 0-1 Arsenal
Monday, August 21 at 8pm in Premier League


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