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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 36.13% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.2%) and 1-0 (4.92%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
42.17% ( 0.86) | 21.69% ( -0.13) | 36.13% ( -0.73) |
| Both teams to score 70.33% ( 0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.69% ( 0.53) | 29.31% ( -0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.64% ( 0.64) | 50.35% ( -0.64) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.08% ( 0.54) | 14.91% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.7% ( 1.01) | 43.29% ( -1.01) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.66% ( -0.08) | 17.33% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.28% ( -0.15) | 47.71% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.12)1-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.06)4-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.37% Total : 42.17% | 1-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 7.19% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.64% Total : 21.69% | 1-2 @ 7.55% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 4.2% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.93% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.19% Total : 36.13% |
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