SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 55.68%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 22.3% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (5.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Heracles |
55.68% ( 0.66) | 22.02% ( -0.31) | 22.3% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 58.42% ( 0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.52% ( 0.98) | 40.48% ( -0.97) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.14% ( 0.99) | 62.86% ( -0.99) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.56% ( 0.55) | 14.44% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.61% ( 1.05) | 42.39% ( -1.05) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.28% ( 0.23) | 31.72% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.86% ( 0.26) | 68.14% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.22)2-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.13% Total : 55.68% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.01% | 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.62% Total : 22.3% |
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