SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 78.96%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 8.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.09%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.58%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (2.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
78.96% ( -0.28) | 12.73% ( 0.27) | 8.32% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 56.37% ( -1.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.22% ( -1.48) | 25.78% ( 1.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.07% ( -1.94) | 45.93% ( 1.94) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.86% ( -0.33) | 5.14% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.6% ( -1.01) | 20.4% ( 1.01) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.42% ( -1.19) | 40.58% ( 1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.83% ( -1.09) | 77.17% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 2-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.47) 3-0 @ 9.09% ( 0.27)2-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.45)4-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.16)5-0 @ 4% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.13)5-1 @ 3.61% ( -0.18)4-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.16)6-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.08)6-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.13)5-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.14)Other @ 5.73% Total : 78.96% | 1-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.21% Total : 12.73% | 1-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.79% Total : 8.32% |
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